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Geoengineering basis for protection against the AMOC/Gulf Stream collapse.

Briefly on the problem

Greenland dumps approximately 350 cubic km of excess fresh water into the Atlantic every year. This fresh water blocks the thermohaline circulation and the AMOC slows down, gives off heat more slowly, and reduces winter precipitation. In the southern latitudes, heat export is blocked, which leads to powerful typhoons and floods. If nothing is done, the probability of the AMOC/Gulf Stream stopping in the next 10–40 years is already above 50%.

Briefly on the solution

In the 25 largest fjords of Greenland, we install a standard floating curtain, typically 2–3 km long (almost all fjords have such a natural constriction) and 60 meters deep. Each fjord collects fresh water runoff from approximately 15-20 thousand sq km, draining about 10 cubic km of fresh water in the summer.

How it works (for non-physicists)

  • Fresh water from the glacier always flows on top, along the fjord in a layer 20-40 m thick.
  • The curtain blocks its direct exit to the ocean.
  • To escape, the fresh water is forced to accumulate, mix with saline water, and dive under the lower edge of the curtain. We assume salinity there is 30.
  • There it immediately mixes with normal saline Atlantic water at 35 ppt.
  • The less saline water begins to rise, mix, and at the surface, it becomes approximately 34 ppt. It reaches the surface because the freshwater flow is blocked at the top and there is simply no lighter water on the ocean side of the curtain.
  • Since new rising water is pressing on it from below, it has only one path—to exit into the ocean as a current.
  • In the ocean at the mouth of the fjord, it spreads out in a large patch (kilometers and tens of kilometers in diameter) and literally displaces/washes out the accumulated fresh water from there, mixing with it.
  • In winter, this patch cools and sinks, initiating natural convection, which over six months draws hundreds of cubic kilometers of fresh water into the deep ocean and replaces it with normal saline water.
  • Since we accumulated fresh water in the fjord, it exits not in a single discharge in summer, but uniformly, and during autumn, and winter, providing the cold of the polar night and the warm water of the Atlantic with an interlayers of dense saline water.
  • Preliminary figures: 5 cubic km of fresh water mixing with an unlimited volume of ocean water to a salinity of 34 yields 175 cubic km of such water, over the winter season—1 cubic kilometer per day exiting the fjord uniformly.
  • Salinity parameters are approximate and depend on the season, the fjord, and the curtain settings.

Naturally, all these hypotheses need to be modeled on specialized computers and verified climate models.

Modeling and Experimental Validation

Existing fjord hydrodynamics models (MITgcm, ROMS, FVCOM) accurately reproduce tidal processes, baroclinic pressure, and glacial runoff in an open water column. Installation of a barrier at 50 m depth introduces uncertainty in key parameter estimation. No data exist on the rate of salinization of the freshwater lens beneath the barrier via tidal bottom friction and entrainment from the 100 m horizon. Peak loads on the anchor system from interaction between accumulated hydrostatic head and ebb currents remain undefined. The salinity gradient in the mixing zone beneath the curtain—and consequently, the characteristics of the outflowing oceanic stream (volume, density)—are unknown. Preliminary estimates are hypothetical, while impact calculations at the Labrador Sea scale require quantitative data.

Required Sequence of Actions:

  1. High-resolution modeling of a fjord with barrier.

    A three-dimensional simulation with horizontal resolution ≤ 100 m and vertical resolution ≤ 2 m is required. Includes: multibeam bathymetry; tidal forcing from TPXO data; seasonal glacial runoff; vertical mixing parameterization (k-ε or k-ω) accounting for internal waves; calculation of barrier deformation and tension as a flexible structure. Output: time series of velocity, salinity, and temperature beneath the barrier, plus anchor stress fields.

  2. Pilot project in field conditions.

    Partial or complete closure of a fjord with 1–2 km³ annual runoff. Mobile pontoon structure on 6 anchors, design wave load Hs = 3 m. Measurements: ADCP beneath barrier, CTD profiling, tensiometers, acoustic deformation sensor. Duration: one runoff season (June–November).

  3. Model calibration using field measurement data.

    ADCP provides outflow velocity profiles; CTD supplies salinity gradients; tension sensors yield peak loads. Calibration of entrainment coefficient and source geometry eliminates theoretical inaccuracies.

  4. Regional modeling of impact on Labrador Sea and Atlantic.

    Nested eddy-permitting MITgcm/NEMO domain with 2–4 km resolution. Calibrated forcing from points 1–3 is implemented at the mouths of three fjords.

    Objectives:

    • Water parcel descent to 400–800 m and interaction with deep cold layers;
    • Signal propagation to the 200 m horizon where warm Atlantic water occurs (depths do not everywhere reach 800 m);
    • Changes in NADW export in multi-year integration;
    • Assessment of surface salinity impact area.

Implementation of the fourth stage without preceding data is limited to theoretical assumptions. With them, it becomes a predictable engineered climate intervention.

Dynamics of oceanic processes

Due to the upwelling of more saline water, estuarine circulation, and tidal exchange, a density anomaly forms in the fjord—a non-stratified layer of water from the surface down to 50 metres, with salinity and temperature similar to those of ocean water at the lower edge of the curtain. During ebb tides, water from the fjord, including that accumulated through the rise of mixed water, exits into the ocean.

Typically, fjords supply highly freshened water that spreads across the surface, a phenomenon well documented in scientific literature and modeling. In this case, the water exiting the fjord is denser than the surface layer of the ocean. This flow creates a density front (Flynn & Linden, 2006). In contact zones with the surrounding fresher water, turbulence and Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities develop, and filament detachment occurs (Smyth & Moum, 2012).

Since the surrounding freshened water is typically colder, these filaments, due to the mechanism of double diffusion, cool more quickly than they lose their salinity and sink into the saline layer even to a greater depth (Schmitt, 1994). This results in a local thickening of the saline water layer, the extent of which depends on the volume of a single water discharge from the fjord during ebb tide. For fjords with an area of 100–200 sq km, the volume of the tidal prism is 0.2–0.4 cubic km. If this water is spread over the surface of the stratified layer in the ocean at a depth of 50–70 metres as a lens 10 metres thick, it forms a spot 5–7 kilometres in diameter, even without considering the entrainment of less saline surface water.

This size corresponds to the Rossby radius in the Labrador Sea (Rieck et al., 2019), which facilitates the formation of an anticyclonic vortex through baroclinic instability (Feng et al., 2021). Importantly, the saline lens does not rotate in isolation within its 10-metre thickness but interacts hydraulically with the underlying homogeneous saline layer of the ocean. The surface disturbance generates a horizontal pressure gradient that extends downward through the entire homogeneous layer (Yankovsky et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2024). During barotropization, baroclinic energy converts into barotropic energy, allowing the vortex to develop a vertically coherent structure (Meunier et al., 2023). The upper boundary of the saline layer is likely situated beneath the fresh layer, at approximately 50 metres depth. The lower boundary is defined by the depth of the involved column of homogeneous water. Rotation elevates the centre of the 5–7 kilometre diameter lens, reducing its separation from the surface to about 20–30 metres, which facilitates wave mixing.

The subsurface anticyclonic vortex also generates Ekman convergence in the overlying freshwater layer through viscous coupling at the interface (McGillicuddy, 2016). Fresh water is drawn horizontally toward the vortex center and undergoes downwelling, where it mixes with the saline water of the vortex core. This process gradually thins and destabilizes the surface freshwater cap, creating conditions favorable for deep winter convection and breakthrough of the convective vortex to the surface, where its cooling rate and internal convection become maximal.

Furthermore, the repeated discharge of saline water from the fjord may cause the formation of closely spaced vortices with similar density and size. At a certain distance between vortex centers, a vortex merger occurs — a process in which two co-rotating vortices combine into a larger, more stable vortex (Griffiths & Hopfinger, 2018; Le Vu et al., 2018). Regarding a large-scale project involving 20 fjords, we consider the possibility of 40 such vortices forming each day, although not all will necessarily be stable.

Of course, not every ebb tide will lead to the formation of a new vortex, and this process itself requires multiple validations both through models and in field conditions. However, the aim of this manuscript is to specifically outline the sequence of scientifically supported effects that require thorough verification.

In effect, the introduction of saline water in the manner described promotes the formation of a mesoscale vortex, salinization of the surface layer, a drop in temperature at the vortex core, upwelling of saline waters, and bending of isopycnals. It can also be suggested that there is a weakening of vertical stratification and a reduction in the influence of freshwater runoff. All these factors align with the well-known phenomenon of preconditioning in the Labrador Sea, which is a crucial factor for initiating deep convection.

The successful implementation of this project, which requires independent verification, could help restart deep convection in the Labrador Sea and contribute to stabilising and accelerating the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This research does not aim to provide a quantitative description or assess the project's readiness for the proposed approach. Its goal is to identify a physically grounded yet under-researched class of mechanisms related to controlling the regime of freshwater export from fjords and to promote discussion on their potential experimental validation. Given the possible consequences of AMOC degradation, even small-scale field experiments in individual fjords appear justified from both scientific and practical viewpoints.

Ecology

Several countries have expressed opposition to barrier and enclosure technologies for ecological reasons, arguing that such curtains turn fjords into swamps. This is not the case here. The passage below 50 meters remains open not only to fish but also to marine mammals. Constant upwelling drives a powerful ascent of deep water and, critically, winter ice melt, which maintains extensive polynyas (spanning square kilometers) and prevents mass fish kills from winter hypoxia. Moreover, the gradual consumption of fresh water smoothes salinity fluctuations, reducing stress on the ecosystem. Naturally, a complete inventory of potential effects warrants separate dedicated research.

Additionally, the curtain is almost entirely submerged and does not affect the landscape, cultural perception, or historical interpretation of the environment where it is installed.